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Coincidentally that would translate into 11 MSPs, an increase of 5 on the 6 they achieved on 6.6% of the regional vote in 2016. They also overtook the Fib Dems who, in 5th place with 5% of the regional vote, just scraped home in North East Scotland to pick up their only list MSP. However, even on a projected 7% of the regional vote, because of the brutal way the D’Hondt voting system works, Willie Rennie is set to lose that Holyrood list seat in 2021’s election.
D’Hondt has the effect of freezing out any party in 5th place and beyond. When the Scottish Greens were 5th in 2011 they managed just 2 list seats and when the 2nd and 3rd parties are so close this effect is amplified.The Labour and Tory regional list percentages, 18% and 21% respectively, are within striking distance of an assault by the Scottish Greens.
We all should vote SNP in the first past the post contests in the constituencies, which is the only way to pick up the possible 73 constituency YESMSPs. However, if you are inclined not be convinced by the overtures of #BothVotesSNP, then boosting the Scottish Greens vote by any amount towards 20% will do severe damage to both Labour and Tory hopes of picking up more than 1 or 2 list MSPs in each region.
There is also an ‘Extinction Rebellion’ vote that the Scottish Greens are bound to benefit from and is mostly absent from opinion polling. The XR group of 16 to 25 year old radical campaigners and supporters are very hard for the the pollsters to contact.
The magic percentage of 28% is a long shot, but a worthwhile and achievable target. This would bring 32 YESMSPs, albeit Scottish Greens, into Holyrood to vote for the referendum. It might cut the Unionists down to only 24 votes against!
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